Clinton victory predictions made prematurely

Experts who had only weeks ago predicted a resounding victory for Hillary Clinton in Tuesday’s presidential election are now withdrawing their conclusions as Donald Trump makes a late-game surge.


Charlie Cook, a respected election forecaster, acknowledged on Saturday that “the race is in a different place than 8 or 9 days ago when there was virtually no path for Trump.”

Only one month ago he had written on Twitter that “the race is OVER,” predicting Trump had no shot of winning.

FiveThirtyEight’s election formula on Oct. 17 gave Clinton a 88 percent chance of winning. Since then, it has dropped to 65 percent.

Meanwhile CNN’s Electoral College forecaster has for the first time put Clinton below the 270 votes required to win the election, as Trump closed the gap in several states that had been predicted to go to the Democratic nominee.

Trump’s recent surge in the polls has been helped in part by the FBI’s announcement last month that it was reopening the investigation into Clinton’s illegal email server.

But even polls conducted in the days before the announcement saw Trump making a major rebound.

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